4. Global ICT developments and trends

Table of Contents

Introduction
Growth and Development of ICT: A Global Comparison
The Next Twenty Five Years in ICT
Global ICT trends and implications
ICT: History and Future
Expected developments within a 20 year time horizon
Economic, Social and Business Trends
Rise of Developing and Transitional Economies
Implications of trends for Australia and Ballarat
Uncertainties That Might Affect These Trends

Introduction

Whilst individual segments of the Australian ICT industry have achieved global success, and ICT adoption by business in Australia is at a relatively high international level, ICT growth has fallen to approximately the same as that for GDP. The Australian Computer Society, in a submission to the Commonwealth Government into Australian Technological Innovations notes that 'Compared to other OECD countries, Australia has been spectacularly unsuccessful in producing, commercialising and marketing innovations. this is reflected in (at 2005) an (ICT) trade deficit of $19 billion' (Australian Computer Society, 2005). Much of this reflects increasing reliance on hardware imports but also signals an absence of large Australian ICT firms. With much of the intellectual property residing overseas, Australia has become significantly technologically dependent on foreign technologies. Even when Australia achieves a major breakthrough, there is the risk that the dominant global players will poach the innovations and/or innovators. Ori Allon, for example, the developer of an advanced text search algorithm called Orion, developed specialised IT skills, capabilities and knowledge at Monash University and the University of NSW, before being persuaded to join Google in California.

According to the ABS in 2002-03, ICT accounted for $36.2 billion or 4.9 percent of GDP in Australia and 13.8 percent of total investment by Government and industry. It made a greater contribution to the economy than the agriculture, forestry and fishing, defence and education industries. Research undertaken by the Australian Government in 2005 found that 85 percent of productivity growth in the manufacturing sector, and up to 78 percent in the services sector, was technology related. This highlights the importance of the ICT industry to the overall productivity of the national economy and its role as a fundamental driver of employment.

Figure 3 - Contribution of GDP (ICT and selected industries)

Source: 2002-03 ICT Satellite Account, Australian Bureau of Statistics